Early Retirement Plan - Thursday's NBA Plays

Find your Thursday Three Band of NBA tips below:

• Jalen Williams 3+ Steals $4

• Gradey Dick Under 20.5 Points

• Darius Garland Over 6.5 Assists

Jalen Williams: A Steals Machine Ready to Cash In Against the Nuggets

If you’re looking for a safer play, consider Jalen Williams for 2 steals in Thursday’s matchup. Over the last five games, Williams has consistently delivered on the defensive end, making him a reliable option to cover this line.

Recent Steals Performance:

Williams has been on a roll defensively, racking up steals at an impressive rate. Here’s a breakdown of his steals over the past five games:

• 3 steals

• 2 steals

• 4 steals

• 4 steals

• 2 steals

With this kind of defensive consistency, betting on Dub to hit 2 steals looks like a smart play, especially given his current form.

Defensive Rating & Steals Per Game:

So far this season, Williams has posted an outstanding Defensive Rating (DRTG) of 92.2 through the first seven games. That’s a solid indicator of his impact on that end of the floor, and it’s no surprise that he’s averaging 2.1 steals per game.

Williams' ability to disrupt passing lanes, make timely pokeaways, and apply defensive pressure on ball handlers makes him a perfect candidate to continue his steals streak.

Matchup Analysis:

In Thursday's game against the Denver Nuggets, Williams will likely have plenty of opportunities to continue his defensive success. Nikola Jokić is known for his elite passing, but he’ll be looking to get wings like Michael Porter Jr. (MPJ) and Aaron Gordon involved. As a defender with great anticipation, Williams can capitalize on these passing lanes and disrupt the flow by jumping in for deflections and steals.

Additionally, Williams is versatile enough to step out onto the perimeter and match up with guards like Jamal Murray, which could lead to more opportunities for pokeaways, especially as he pressures the ball handler up the court.

Why Bet on Jalen Williams for 2 Steals:

With his ability to cover both the interior and the perimeter, Williams is positioned to be a nuisance for the Nuggets on Thursday. His recent steals stats, combined with his strong defensive rating, suggest that he’s more than capable of racking up another 2 steals. Given how the Nuggets run their offense, especially looking to involve wings and guards in their sets, expect Williams to continue his impressive streak of defensive plays.

If you’re looking for a safe yet solid bet for Thursday, Jalen Williams over 2 steals is one to consider. His defensive game is clicking, and the matchup against Denver is prime for him to add more steals to his tally.

Gradey Dick Under 20.5 Points: Why the Rookie's Hot Streak Might Be Coming to an End

Gradey Dick has been impressive as a rookie, but Thursday's matchup against the Sacramento Kings might be the perfect opportunity to bet under 20.5 points for the young star. While his recent hot streak has been hard to ignore, this feels like a classic spot where Dick’s scoring output could take a step back.

Recent Performance:

Just four days ago, Dick faced the Kings and posted a 6-of-17 shooting performance, finishing with 22 points. At first glance, this would seem to suggest that the over on his points total is a good bet. However, sometimes the numbers don’t tell the whole story. Despite his impressive scoring recently, something about this matchup doesn’t sit right, especially with the line set at 20.5 points.

Season Scoring Trends:

Starting the season with a strong showing, Dick posted the following point totals:

• 14 points 

• 16 points 

• 8 points 

• 25 points 

• 15 points 

This brings his total to 4 out of 5 games under the 20.5-point mark. With this in mind, the under is looking like the safer play, especially with a few factors working against him tonight.

Shot Volume and Efficiency:

Dick has been active on offense, averaging 16 field goal attempts per game and shooting 46.5% from the field. His perimeter shooting has also been solid, averaging 7.2 three-point attempts per game and hitting 37% of them. These are strong numbers, but as any rookie will tell you, consistency can be an issue. The key here is that Dick, for all his talent, tends to fall into the trap of settling for jump shots more often than not. He’s capable of going cold, he could struggle to find his rhythm.

Defensive Matchup:

In this game, Dick will likely face defenders with both length and defensive prowess. DeMar DeRozan and Malik Monk are two players who are capable of guarding him, each bringing their own set of challenges. DeRozan’s physicality and Monk’s quickness will likely disrupt Dick’s jump shot rhythm, forcing him into tougher, contested attempts. While Dick has a great offensive bag, these defenders will make things difficult, especially on the perimeter where he likes to operate.

Why Bet the Under on Gradey Dick:

While Dick’s scoring potential has been clear in his first few games, tonight’s matchup against the Kings feels like a prime spot for him to struggle to hit the 20.5-point mark. Despite his strong start to the season, he’s shown a tendency to go through scoring droughts and settle for tough shots, which could make him a bit more inconsistent. Plus, with other scoring options available, the rookie might not be the focal point of the offense tonight.

In summary, under 20.5 points on Gradey Dick is an intriguing bet. While his potential is undeniable, this matchup against Sacramento, with length and defensive focus on him, makes it harder for him to get to the 20-point threshold. His recent shooting performance and the Kings’ defensive setup should lead to a quieter night for the young gun.

Darius Garland: Set to Dish Out Assists in Crucial Matchup To Remain Undefeated Against the Pelicans

Darius Garland has been in stellar form lately, and in Thursday’s matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans, we’re expecting him to continue his strong play — particularly in the assist column. With the Cavaliers looking to stay undefeated, Garland’s role as the primary facilitator will be crucial, and with his usage rate at an all-time high, he’s poised to surpass his average of 6.5 assists per game.

Recent Assists Performance:

Garland enters this matchup having delivered 8 assists in his last game and a whopping 10 assists in the one before that. With his playmaking abilities on full display, he’s been showing his potential as one of the league’s most efficient passers. At 6.5 assists per game, Garland is a reliable bet to hit or exceed this line, and considering his recent performances, more assists are likely on the horizon.

Increased Usage and Minutes:

Garland’s involvement in Cleveland’s offense has been paramount, and with the Cavaliers aiming to stay undefeated, expect him to play close to 36 minutes in what should be a competitive game against the Pelicans. After a 39-point outing in his last game, Garland will likely face defensive schemes designed to limit his scoring — but that will only open up more opportunities for him to distribute the ball to teammates like Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.

As New Orleans looks to adjust their defense to slow Garland’s scoring — potentially with blitzes off the pick and roll or hard hedges to prevent his pull-up shots — these defensive tactics will naturally create openings for Garland to hit Mobley and Allen on rolls to the basket for easy dunks and layups. Garland’s high basketball IQ and ability to read the floor make him more than capable of capitalizing on these opportunities.

Mitchell’s Encouragement and Garland’s Off-Ball Role:

Another factor that boosts Garland’s assist potential is Donovan Mitchell’s role in the offense. Mitchell has been encouraging Garland to take more control over the ball-handling duties, which is exactly where Garland excels. This allows Mitchell to be more of an off-ball threat, which opens up even more space for Garland to distribute. With Garland orchestrating the offense, Cleveland has been running at a high pace — with Garland being a generator of quick, high-quality shots for his teammates.

Matchup Analysis:

The Pelicans present an interesting challenge, and Garland will face a mix of matchups throughout the game. Expect to see him matched up against Jose Alvarado and Brandon Ingram, two players who can pressure him defensively but won’t be able to limit his playmaking for long. Additionally, the Pelicans have been using a 1-3-1 zone defense this season, which could allow Garland to exploit the high post and mid-range areas, setting up plays for Cleveland’s bigs on flash cuts.

With his ability to read the defense and make quick decisions, Garland will look to break down New Orleans' zone defense and generate easy looks for Mobley and Allen, leading to potential high assist numbers.

Why Bet on DG’s Assists:

With Garland’s usage rate up and his increased role as the primary ball handler for Cleveland, betting on Garland over 6.5 assists looks like a smart play. His recent performances, coupled with the way the Pelicans’ defense will likely force him to pass out of double teams and pressure situations, should lead to Garland getting easy assist opportunities. Additionally, Garland’s ability to exploit mismatches and create open shots for teammates will give him a high chance of hitting the assist mark in this matchup.

Expect Garland to orchestrate the offense efficiently, finding ways to break down New Orleans’ defense and creating easy scoring opportunities for his teammates. The assist total feels like a solid bet in what could be a tight, high-paced contest.

The Ultimate Generation Feeder 😁 

Today we have too many games, below I am going to drop 2 multis with insane value - let’s see what we can do and potentially feed fams.

Project Wealth Generator 1 $328-1 - Proceed at your own risk this might get weird

Jalen Suggs O29.5 PRA

Lamelo Ball O26.5 Points

Jrue Holiday O.5 Steals

Knicks H2H

Sengun 15+ Points

Donovan Mitchell O3.5 Rebounds

D’Angelo Russell 4 Assists

Kyrie Irving U24.5 Pts

SGA 25+ Points

Jimmy Butler O4.5 Rebs

Davion Mitchell 2+ 3’s (Weird but revenge game)

Philly H2H

Project Wealth Generator 2.0 - Might get weirder $991s LMAO cooking

Tyrese Haliburton O26.5 P&A

Detroit H2H

Derrick White 20+ Pts

Jalen Johnson 20+ Pts

Wembanyama U16.5 R&A

Mobley O16.5 Pts

Lakers H2H

Klay 15+

Jokic O27.5 Points

Suns H2H

Dick 1+ Steal

Harden 20+ Points